Timing is Everything

May 20, 2008 | By PA Pundits |

by Tim Potts

In politics as in comedy, timing can be everything. Here are two examples.

34 Days to Deadline
The House and Senate have just 34 days to act if PA is going to improve its system of drawing borders for legislative districts. The leading proposal is House Bill 2420 , a bi-partisan proposal with 90 co-sponsors. For more about HB 2420, see the May 12 edition of DR News. Click here to see how the Pocono Record is treating this crucial issue.

The bill is now in the House State Government Committee . It’s on the agenda for the committee’s May 29 meeting where a couple of things can happen:
1. The committee can vote on the bill and pass it.
2. The committee can vote on the bill and defeat it.
3. The committee can discuss the bill and decide not to vote on it, which keeps it in committee.
4. The committee can ignore it, which also keeps it in committee.

The good news is that 15 of the 29 members of the House State Government Committee (7 Democrats and 8 Republicans) are co-sponsors of HB 2420. On that basis alone, you’d think that the bill will get a vote, and a positive vote at that. But strange things happen. Stay tuned.

Indictment Timing
Now in its 16th month, Attorney General Tom Corbett’s investigation into allegations of legislative corruption is inspiring intense speculation about when, not whether, indictments will come down. No one believes that there will be none. Meanwhile the June 30 deadline for the state budget looms, and legislative elections happen in November.

So here are some approaching markers. PA politics will change in different ways depending on whether indictments occur before or after these events.

June 2. That’s when the legislature returns from its two-week Memorial Day break. Legislative leaders who are indicted must surrender their leadership positions. Because some legislative leaders are at the center of the investigations, it’s possible that one or more will be among those indicted.

Passing the budget could only be rendered more difficult by the loss of leaders so close to June 30. That could be good for Gov. Ed Rendell. If the legislature finds itself in turmoil, lawmakers may decide that Rendell’s proposal isn’t so bad after all.

If indictments come down before June 2, lawmakers (both the indicted and the unindicted) can avoid the Capitol media corps more easily. Many lawmakers will want the time to think before meeting reporters in Capitol hallways. It also is as far as they can get from November’s election.

Budget Passage. Midnight June 30 is the deadline. But the last time that happened was in 2002. Some speculate that this year’s budget could drag on into the middle of July.

Issuing indictments during this time would create turmoil. If the budget is late and citizens become angry, indictments during the budget debate would be throwing gas on the fire of public dissatisfaction with the legislature. Capitol media would have the best possible access to lawmakers, who would rather be anywhere but Harrisburg while their leaders (possibly brand new) work on the budget.

At the same time, the budget provides a good way for lawmakers to change the subject. Education, taxes, highways, crime, jobs and other issues are proven distractions when lawmakers want to avoid citizens’ demands to know, “What the hell’s going on up there?”

Just after the Budget Passes. We’re getting closer to November, and the longer the budget fight drags on, the closer we get. All the lawmakers are out of town after the budget deal is done, but there’s no official action with enough heft to distract citizens from the scandal.

Typically, reporters spend a week or two looking at the budget and trying to detect the secrets that are always buried in a spending plan for all of state government and much of local government. But it’s not likely that this sleuthing would trump a good scandal.

August 1. As reported before, half of the House districts and three-fourths of the Senate districts have no races in November. What happens if an unopposed lawmaker is indicted?

If indictments occur significantly before August 1, someone may decide to run as a third-party or independent candidate to force a real election. Such candidates can circulate nominating petitions throughout the spring and summer but must file them on or before August 1 in order to get on the ballot. After August 1, the potential for electoral competition drops drastically.

August 8. If an indicted lawmaker chooses to withdraw from the November election, this is the last date to do it. If that happens, the lawmaker’s political party gets to nominate another candidate for election. However, any other potential candidate is precluded from running anything but a write-in campaign.

Questions

This is the way political professionals think, but should such considerations influence the course of justice?
How will we know whether political timing influences the attorney general’s decision about when to prosecute?

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